Instituto Cordoba 1–1 Sarmiento Junin

Instituto Cordoba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sarmiento Junin

G. A. Lodico 67'

E. Gimenez 54'

4/27/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 15Estadio Presidente Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Instituto Cordoba49%

×Draw30%

Sarmiento Junin20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Instituto CordobaExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Junin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.66

Instituto Cordoba

1.21

Sarmiento Junin

0.66

Instituto Cordoba creates 83% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

1.17

creates per match

0.55

0.77

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba

1.17

Sarmiento Junin

0.55

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba

0.77

Sarmiento Junin

1.25

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Instituto Cordoba-0.11scores less

Sarmiento Junin+0.27scores more

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

Sarmiento Junin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw

80%

Instituto Cordoba or Sarmiento Junin

70%

Draw or Sarmiento Junin

51%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

22%

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

70%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

34%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

12%

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

48%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

14%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

71%

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.77 · 16 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.17 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.55 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more

49%

level

30%

Sarmiento Junin scores more

20%

Instituto Cordoba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

G. A. Lodico

Instituto Cordoba · M

8.3

Match Events

18'

Jeremias Vallejos

30'

Juan Manuel Insaurralde

41'

44'

46'

54'

61'

63'

63'

J. Dellarossa← L. Klimowicz

64'

M. Garcia← E. Gimenez

67'

G. A. Lodico↳ J. Dellarossa

70'

73'

77'

78'

78'

82'

M. Gallardo← J. Lazaro

87'

S. Romero← G. A. Lodico

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InstitutoSarmiento

Overview

70%Possession30%

15Total Shots7

13Corners3

8Fouls21

Shots

15Total Shots7

6On Target3

6Off Target3

3Blocked1

12Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

70%Possession30%

443Total Passes196

360Accurate Passes116

81%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls21

2Yellow Cards5

2Offsides0