Sarmiento Junin 2–1 Instituto Cordoba

Sarmiento Junin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Instituto Cordoba

P. Magnín 62' (pen), 25' (pen)

D. Arce 37'

2/16/2020

Primera Nacional · Group A - 17Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sarmiento Junin49%

×Draw28%

Instituto Cordoba23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento JuninExpected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.81

Sarmiento Junin

1.33

Instituto Cordoba

0.81

Sarmiento Junin creates 64% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 72 away

1.57

creates per match

0.92

0.71

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin

1.57

Instituto Cordoba

0.92

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.71

Instituto Cordoba

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarmiento Junin+0.00on par

Instituto Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw

77%

Sarmiento Junin or Instituto Cordoba

72%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

51%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

23%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

74%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

38%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

15%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

56%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

19%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

68%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 1.57 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.92 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more

49%

level

28%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

23%

Sarmiento Junin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

11'

19'

24'

25'

P. MagnínPenalty

37'

D. Arce

46'

A. Cólzera← B. Borasi

49'

F. Silva

54'

F. Vázquez← F. Antonini

62'

P. MagnínPenalty

65'

70'

G. Estigarribia← M. Braida

72'

F. Molina← F. Núñez

76'

R. Garro← J. Apaolaza

80'

L. Garnier

80'

G. Yabalé← C. Carrizo

84'

J. Sills

85'

F. Vismara

Sarmiento

Instituto

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: I. Delfino

46'▲A. Cólzera←▼B. Borasi

54'▲F. Vázquez←▼F. Antonini

72'▲F. Molina←▼F. Núñez

Sarmiento Junin substitutes

CólzeraVázquezMolinaDaffonchioChávesCastelliGeminiani

Manager: C. Zabala

70'▲G. Estigarribia←▼M. Braida

76'▲R. Garro←▼J. Apaolaza

80'▲G. Yabalé←▼C. Carrizo

Instituto Cordoba substitutes

EstigarribiaGarroYabaléCasasPinoPetruchiWatson