Sarmiento Junin 2–2 Atletico Tucuman

Sarmiento Junin

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico Tucuman

J. Ardaiz 45', 6'

C. Auzqui 90'

M. Coronel 87'

8/18/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Eva Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sarmiento Junin39%

×Draw29%

Atletico Tucuman32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento JuninExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.03

Sarmiento Junin

1.16

Atletico Tucuman

1.03

Sarmiento Junin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

0.94

creates per match

1.10

0.96

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.94

Atletico Tucuman

1.10

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.96

Atletico Tucuman

1.38

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Sarmiento Junin-0.06on par

Atletico Tucuman-0.52scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw

68%

Sarmiento Junin or Atletico Tucuman

71%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

61%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

16%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

69%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

32%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

64%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

28%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

55%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.96 · 16 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.94 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.10 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more

39%

level

29%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

32%

Sarmiento Junin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Ardaiz

Sarmiento Junin · F

9.3

Match Events

6'

J. Ardaiz↳ I. Morales

39'

Gabriel Díaz

45'

J. Ardaiz

46'

J. Godoy← G. Diaz

46'

M. Garcia← E. Gimenez

46'

C. Auzqui← A. Sanchez

46'

M. Coronel← M. Bajamich

48'

Franco Nicola

56'

Joel Godoy

62'

N. Lamendola← N. Franco

62'

K. Lopez← L. Godoy

75'

Facundo Roncaglia

75'

S. Rodriguez← J. Ardaiz

75'

L. Pratto← I. Morales

75'

R. Ruiz← M. Villa

80'

S. Morales← F. Roncaglia

81'

Miguel Brizuela

84'

Leandro Díaz

87'

M. Coronel↳ N. Lamendola

90+2'

Kevin Ortíz

90'

C. Auzqui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarmientoAtletico

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots19

1.98Expected Goals (xG)2.26

3Corners8

21Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots19

6On Target8

3Off Target5

4Blocked6

10Inside Box10

3Outside Box9

Passing

43%Possession57%

319Total Passes418

224Accurate Passes300

70%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

0.03Goals Prevented0.03

Discipline

21Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1