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Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
M. Coronel 67', 30'
A. Sanchez 45'
G. Diaz 42' (OG)
L. Diaz 2'
2/14/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 5Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Atletico Tucuman51%
×Draw29%
Sarmiento Junin20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Tucuman
1.31
Sarmiento Junin
0.70

Atletico Tucuman creates 87% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.36
Sarmiento Junin
0.55

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman
0.84
Sarmiento Junin
1.25

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.08on par
Sarmiento Junin+0.27scores more

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Sarmiento Junin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw
80%
Atletico Tucuman or Sarmiento Junin
71%
Draw or Sarmiento Junin
49%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
24%
Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
73%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
38%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
14%
Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals
50%
Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals
16%
Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
72%
Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 18 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.36 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.55 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more
51%
level
29%
Sarmiento Junin scores more
20%

Atletico Tucuman at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
M. CoronelAtletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman · F
9.2

Match Events

2'
L. Diaz↳ D. Martinez
19'
N. Lamendola
30'
T. Guiacobini
30'
M. Coronel
34'
M. CoronelGoal Disallowed - offside
40'
G. Carabajal← T. Guiacobini
42'
G. DiazOwn goal
45'
A. Sanchez↳ M. Coronel
48'
A. Vigo
53'
D. Martinez
56'
V. Burgoa← L. Suhr
61'
M. Brandan← D. Martinez
61'
N. Castro← N. Lamendola
61'
L. Rodriguez← L. Diaz
62'
P. Magnin← F. Frias
67'
M. Coronel↳ R. Ruiz
69'
M. Bajamich← M. Coronel
72'
R. Melo← G. Acosta
82'
J. Gho

Possession

54%Atletico

Shots

18Atletico

Pass accuracy

52%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoSarmiento
Overview
54%Possession46%
18Total Shots7
3Corners4
12Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots7
8On Target2
6Off Target3
4Blocked2
11Inside Box3
7Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
351Total Passes300
295Accurate Passes230
84%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Atletico Tucuman vs Sarmiento Junin

Atletico Tucuman beat Sarmiento Junin 5-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 14, 2025.

Goals: L. Diaz (2'), M. Coronel (30', 67'), G. Diaz (42' o.g.), A. Sanchez (45').

Atletico Tucuman controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro in Tucuman.