Sarmiento Junin 4–1 Atletico Tucuman

Sarmiento Junin

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Atletico Tucuman

S. Quiroga 83', 18'

G. Díaz 36'

L. Melano 22'

M. Coronel 57'

6/25/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 21Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sarmiento Junin39%

×Draw29%

Atletico Tucuman32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento JuninExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.03

Sarmiento Junin

1.16

Atletico Tucuman

1.03

Sarmiento Junin creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

0.94

creates per match

1.10

0.96

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.94

Atletico Tucuman

1.10

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.96

Atletico Tucuman

1.38

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Sarmiento Junin-0.06on par

Atletico Tucuman-0.52scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw

68%

Sarmiento Junin or Atletico Tucuman

71%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

61%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

16%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

69%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

32%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

64%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

28%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

55%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.96 · 16 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.94 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.10 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more

39%

level

29%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

32%

Sarmiento Junin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Quiroga

Sarmiento Junin · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

18'

20'

22'

36'

39'

Gabriel DíazGoal confirmed

41'

Lucas Melano

46'

J. Kaprof← L. Melano

54'

Renzo Tesuri

57'

M. Coronel↳ M. Estigarribia

60'

E. Hernández← M. García

60'

I. Maestro Puch← B. Guille

68'

M. Mónaco← J. Rosso

72'

B. Kociubinski← G. Acosta

83'

S. Quiroga↳ G. Díaz

85'

A. Cougo← E. Méndez

85'

H. Mancilla← S. Quiroga

89'

Marcelo González← R. Tesuri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarmientoAtletico

Overview

38%Possession62%

20Total Shots14

7Corners3

9Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots14

6On Target4

9Off Target6

5Blocked4

11Inside Box4

9Outside Box10

Passing

38%Possession62%

241Total Passes412

154Accurate Passes332

64%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Sarmiento Junin 4–1 Atletico Tucuman

Sarmiento Junin beat Atletico Tucuman 4-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 25, 2023.

Goals: S. Quiroga (18', 83'), L. Melano (22'), G. Díaz (36'), M. Coronel (57').

Atletico Tucuman controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín in Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Sarmiento Junin vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Sarmiento Junin 4–1 Atletico Tucuman