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Santos vs Goias — Serie B 2026

Santos
Santos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Goias
Goias
6/20/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 11Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Santos50%
×Draw27%
Goias24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
1.46
Goias
0.92

Santos creates 59% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 86 away

creates per match

Santos
1.79
Goias
1.15

allows per match

Santos
0.68
Goias
1.13

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
Goias+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Goias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santos or draw
76%
Santos or Goias
73%
Draw or Goias
50%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
25%
Goias wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
77%
Santos 2+ goals
43%
Santos 3+ goals
18%
Goias 1+ goals
60%
Goias 2+ goals
23%
Goias 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
68%
Goias (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Goias away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.79 + Goias defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Goias attack 1.15 + Santos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Santos scores more
50%
level
27%
Goias scores more
24%

Santos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos vs Goias

Santos beat Goias 2-0 in Serie B on June 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Santos, São Paulo.