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Santos vs Goias — Serie A 2026

Santos
Santos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Goias
Goias
9/5/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 25Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Santos53%
×Draw24%
Goias23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
1.66
Goias
0.99

Santos creates 68% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 76 away

creates per match

Santos
1.54
Goias
0.97

allows per match

Santos
1.01
Goias
1.78

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
Goias+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Goias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Santos or draw
77%
Santos or Goias
76%
Draw or Goias
47%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
29%
Goias wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
81%
Santos 2+ goals
49%
Santos 3+ goals
23%
Goias 1+ goals
63%
Goias 2+ goals
26%
Goias 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
70%
Goias (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Goias away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.78 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.54 + Goias defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.66

Goias attack 0.97 + Santos defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santos scores more
53%
level
24%
Goias scores more
23%

Santos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Santos 1–2 Goias

Goias beat Santos 2-1 in Serie A on September 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Santos, São Paulo.