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Goias vs Santos — Serie A 2026

Goias
Goias
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santos
Santos
11/9/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 33Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Goias41%
×Draw28%
Santos31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goias
1.30
Santos
1.09

Goias creates 19% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 142 away

creates per match

Goias
1.16
Santos
0.89

allows per match

Goias
1.30
Santos
1.45

finishing

Goias+0.00on par
Santos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Santos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Goias or draw
69%
Goias or Santos
72%
Draw or Santos
59%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+
19%
Santos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals
73%
Goias 2+ goals
37%
Goias 3+ goals
14%
Santos 1+ goals
66%
Santos 2+ goals
30%
Santos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)
57%
Santos (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 77 matches

Santos away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.45 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.16 + Santos defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Santos attack 0.89 + Goias defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Goias scores more
41%
level
28%
Santos scores more
31%

Goias at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Goias vs Santos

Santos beat Goias 1-0 in Serie A on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro in Goiânia, Goiás.