Santos Laguna 3–0 Monterrey: Result & Stats

Santos Laguna

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Monterrey

L. Di Yorio 72'

A. Lopez 45'

E. Echeverria 43'

4/26/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Santos Laguna32%

×Draw25%

Monterrey43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.56

Santos Laguna

1.31

Monterrey

1.56

Monterrey creates 19% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 42 away

1.11

creates per match

1.57

1.56

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.11

Monterrey

1.57

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.56

Monterrey

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

57%

Santos Laguna or Monterrey

75%

Draw or Monterrey

68%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

14%

Monterrey wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

73%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

38%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

14%

Monterrey 1+ goals

79%

Monterrey 2+ goals

46%

Monterrey 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

43%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.11 + Monterrey defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Monterrey attack 1.57 + Santos Laguna defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

32%

level

25%

Monterrey scores more

43%

Monterrey at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Bullaude

Santos Laguna · F

8.7

Match Events

17'

Joaquin MoxicaGoal cancelled

38'

Victor Guzmán

41'

Emmanuel Echeverría

43'

E. Echeverria↳ E. Bullaude

45+4'

Salvador Mariscal

45'

A. Lopez↳ E. Bullaude

60'

Ricardo Chávez

60'

S. Rodriguez← I. Fimbres

60'

C. Reyes← R. Chavez

60'

E. Aguirre← L. Orellano

66'

Lucas Di Yorio

66'

Carlos Salcedo

68'

L. Gomez← F. Villalba

72'

L. Di Yorio↳ E. Bullaude

77'

C. Gruezo← S. Mariscal Murra

77'

D. Medina← A. Lopez

81'

R. de la Rosa← J. Corona

85'

Kevin Balanta

89'

C. Dajome← L. Di Yorio

89'

T. Jimenez← E. Bullaude

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosMonterrey

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots16

0.92Expected Goals (xG)0.64

3Corners6

17Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots16

3On Target2

2Off Target10

2Blocked4

5Inside Box6

2Outside Box10

Passing

45%Possession55%

281Total Passes335

218Accurate Passes273

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

-1.01Goals Prevented-1.01

Discipline

17Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

5Offsides2