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Monterrey vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2024

Monterrey
Monterrey
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
L. Ocampos 36'
9/28/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Monterrey61%
×Draw20%
Santos Laguna18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterrey
2.11
Santos Laguna
1.05

Monterrey creates 101% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 35 away

creates per match

Monterrey
1.88
Santos Laguna
0.89

allows per match

Monterrey
1.21
Santos Laguna
2.34

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw
82%
Monterrey or Santos Laguna
80%
Draw or Santos Laguna
39%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+
38%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals
88%
Monterrey 2+ goals
62%
Monterrey 3+ goals
35%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
65%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
28%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)
77%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.88 + Santos Laguna defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.11

Santos Laguna attack 0.89 + Monterrey defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Monterrey scores more
61%
level
20%
Santos Laguna scores more
18%

Monterrey at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
L. OcamposMonterreyMonterrey · M
8.0

Match Events

11'
Javier Güemez
36'
L. Ocampos↳ G. Arteaga
47'
Óliver Torres
52'
Stefan Medina
60'
J. Carrillo← J. Guemez
61'
Cristián Dájome
67'
K. Palacios← R. Sordo
67'
C. Lozano← J. A. Ocejo Zazueta
72'
J. Rodriguez← A. Martial
73'
Kevin Balanta
74'
F. Villalba← A. Lopez
74'
D. Medina← C. Dajome
77'
Bruno Amione
87'
E. Aguirre← J. Corona
89'
J. Moxica← G. Berterame
89'
M. Rodriguez← L. Ocampos
90+5'
Anthony Lozano

Possession

60%Monterrey

Shots

13Monterrey

Pass accuracy

52%Monterrey

Statistics

MonterreySantos
Overview
60%Possession40%
13Total Shots10
5Corners2
17Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots10
3On Target2
7Off Target6
3Blocked2
9Inside Box7
4Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
576Total Passes391
523Accurate Passes331
91%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls14
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Monterrey vs Santos Laguna

Monterrey beat Santos Laguna 1-0 in Liga MX on September 28, 2025.

Goals: L. Ocampos (36').

Monterrey controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA Bancomer in Monterrey.