Santos Laguna 0–2 Monterrey: Result & Stats

Santos Laguna

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Monterrey

J. Cortizo 60'

M. Meza 4'

1/22/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Santos Laguna32%

×Draw25%

Monterrey43%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.56

Santos Laguna

1.31

Monterrey

1.56

Monterrey creates 19% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 42 away

1.11

creates per match

1.57

1.56

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.11

Monterrey

1.57

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.56

Monterrey

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

57%

Santos Laguna or Monterrey

75%

Draw or Monterrey

68%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

14%

Monterrey wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

73%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

38%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

14%

Monterrey 1+ goals

79%

Monterrey 2+ goals

46%

Monterrey 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

43%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.11 + Monterrey defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Monterrey attack 1.57 + Santos Laguna defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

32%

level

25%

Monterrey scores more

43%

Monterrey at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Andrada

Monterrey · G

7.9

Match Events

4'

M. Meza↳ O. Govea

22'

25'

38'

45+3'

49'

60'

J. Cortizo↳ J. Rodríguez

68'

Franco Fagúndez

69'

Sergio Canales← A. González

69'

J. Corona← J. Cortizo

69'

B. Vázquez← M. Meza

69'

J. Martínez← O. Govea

71'

J. González← D. Vergara

71'

S. Muñóz← F. Fagúndez

77'

86'

86'

90+6'

90+4'

L. Vega← A. Cervantes

90+7'

C. Garza← J. Rodríguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosMonterrey

Overview

45%Possession55%

19Total Shots13

6Corners5

10Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots13

4On Target4

9Off Target5

6Blocked4

12Inside Box6

7Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

380Total Passes479

314Accurate Passes404

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Santos Laguna vs Monterrey

Monterrey beat Santos Laguna 2-0 in Liga MX on January 22, 2024.

Goals: M. Meza (4'), J. Cortizo (60').

Monterrey controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Corona in Torreón.

Santos Laguna vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Santos Laguna vs Monterrey