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Santos Laguna vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Monterrey
Monterrey
B. Lozano 90+1' (pen)
H. Preciado 85'
F. Torres 34'
F. Gorriarán 26' (pen)
R. Funes Mori 67' (pen), 17'
R. Aguirre 21'
7/4/2022Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Nuevo Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Santos Laguna42%
×Draw25%
Monterrey33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.47
Monterrey
1.27

Santos Laguna creates 16% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 154 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.66
Monterrey
1.36

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
Monterrey
1.28

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Monterrey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
67%
Santos Laguna or Monterrey
75%
Draw or Monterrey
58%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
20%
Monterrey wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
77%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
43%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
18%
Monterrey 1+ goals
72%
Monterrey 2+ goals
36%
Monterrey 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
56%
Monterrey (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.47

Monterrey attack 1.36 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
42%
level
25%
Monterrey scores more
33%

Santos Laguna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
R. Funes MoriMonterreyMonterrey · F
8.9

Match Events

3'
Ronaldo Prieto
17'
R. Funes Mori
21'
R. Aguirre↳ A. González
26'
F. GorriaránPenalty
34'
F. Torres↳ F. Gorriarán
42'
César Montes
45+2'
Maximiliano Meza
46'
B. Lozano← J. Carrillo
46'
A. Cervantes← R. Prieto
50'
Fernando Gorriarán
61'
J. Correa← E. Aguirre
64'
Érick AguirrePenalty awarded
67'
R. Funes MoriPenalty
69'
J. Gallardo← A. González
70'
R. Pizarro← M. Meza
70'
É. Gutiérrez← C. Montes
75'
F. Pizzichillo← E. Orrantía
76'
J. González← L. Suárez
79'
H. Moreno← R. Funes Mori
85'
H. Preciado↳ B. Lozano
86'
J. Rojas← R. Aguirre
89'
Jesús Gallardo
90+12'
Stefan Medina
90+11'
Jesús GallardoGoal cancelled
90+1'
B. LozanoPenalty

Possession

49%Santos

Shots

19Santos

Pass accuracy

50%Santos

Statistics

SantosMonterrey
Overview
49%Possession51%
19Total Shots17
7Corners6
6Fouls19
Shots
19Total Shots17
5On Target8
7Off Target7
7Blocked2
14Inside Box11
5Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
277Total Passes293
187Accurate Passes202
68%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls19
2Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Liga MX: Santos Laguna 4–3 Monterrey

Santos Laguna beat Monterrey 4-3 in Liga MX on July 4, 2022.

Goals: R. Funes Mori (17', 67' pen), R. Aguirre (21'), F. Gorriarán (26' pen), F. Torres (34'), H. Preciado (85'), B. Lozano (90+1' pen).

Monterrey controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Corona in Torreón.