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Monterrey vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Monterrey
Monterrey
Preview
01:05
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
7/19/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio BBVA
59%
Monterrey
model favours
59%20%20%
2–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Monterrey59%
×Draw20%
Santos Laguna20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterrey
2.19
Santos Laguna
1.21

Monterrey creates 81% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

creates per match

Monterrey
1.82
Santos Laguna
1.05

allows per match

Monterrey
1.36
Santos Laguna
2.55

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw
80%
Monterrey or Santos Laguna
80%
Draw or Santos Laguna
41%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+
37%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals
89%
Monterrey 2+ goals
64%
Monterrey 3+ goals
37%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
70%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
34%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)
74%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.82 + Santos Laguna defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.19

Santos Laguna attack 1.05 + Monterrey defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Monterrey scores more
59%
level
20%
Santos Laguna scores more
20%

Monterrey at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Monterrey
DWLWL
Laguna
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Monterrey vs Santos Laguna — Match Preview

Monterrey face Santos Laguna on July 19, 2026 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Monterrey host Santos Laguna at Estadio BBVA.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.