Santos Laguna 2–1 Monterrey: Result & Stats

Santos Laguna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Monterrey

E. Preciado 63'

E. Aguirre 52'

V. Janssen 19'

5/14/2021

Liga MX · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Nuevo Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Santos Laguna42%

×Draw25%

Monterrey33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchMonterrey

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.27

Santos Laguna

1.47

Monterrey

1.27

Santos Laguna creates 16% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 154 away

1.66

creates per match

1.36

1.18

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.66

Monterrey

1.36

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.18

Monterrey

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Monterrey →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

67%

Santos Laguna or Monterrey

75%

Draw or Monterrey

58%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

20%

Monterrey wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

77%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

43%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

18%

Monterrey 1+ goals

72%

Monterrey 2+ goals

36%

Monterrey 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

56%

Monterrey (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.47

Monterrey attack 1.36 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

42%

level

25%

Monterrey scores more

33%

Santos Laguna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Valdés

Santos Laguna · M

7.7

Match Events

4'

5'

19'

36'

52'

55'

R. Funes Mori← V. Janssen

60'

M. Kranevitter← A. Mora

62'

63'

63'

70'

77'

A. Ibargüen← E. Preciado

79'

D. Pabón← C. Rodríguez

83'

J. Isijara← D. Valdés

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosMonterrey

Overview

49%Possession51%

23Total Shots13

10Corners5

3Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots13

5On Target3

11Off Target9

7Blocked1

15Inside Box8

8Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

360Total Passes373

278Accurate Passes267

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

3Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2