Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Santos Laguna vs Monterrey — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Monterrey
Monterrey
B. Lozano 20'
V. Janssen 57'
12/2/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Nuevo Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Santos Laguna42%
×Draw25%
Monterrey33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.47
Monterrey
1.27

Santos Laguna creates 16% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 154 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.66
Monterrey
1.36

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
Monterrey
1.28

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
Monterrey+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Monterrey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
67%
Santos Laguna or Monterrey
75%
Draw or Monterrey
58%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
20%
Monterrey wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
77%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
43%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
18%
Monterrey 1+ goals
72%
Monterrey 2+ goals
36%
Monterrey 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
56%
Monterrey (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Monterrey away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Monterrey defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.47

Monterrey attack 1.36 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
42%
level
25%
Monterrey scores more
33%

Santos Laguna at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
J. GallardoMonterreyMonterrey · M
8.2

Match Events

20'
B. Lozano↳ D. Valdés
33'
Erick Castillo
42'
Leonel Vangioni
46'
M. Layún← M. Meza
57'
V. Janssen↳ J. Gallardo
69'
O. Rivero← U. Rivas
71'
R. Pizarro← D. Pabón
80'
Brian Lozano
80'
E. Orrantía← J. Abella
89'
J. Basanta← V. Janssen
90'
Gerardo Arteaga

Possession

61%Santos

Shots

22Santos

Pass accuracy

55%Santos

Statistics

SantosMonterrey
Overview
61%Possession39%
22Total Shots9
13Corners2
14Fouls17
Shots
22Total Shots9
3On Target6
15Off Target2
4Blocked1
12Inside Box6
10Outside Box3
Passing
61%Possession39%
418Total Passes277
328Accurate Passes181
78%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls17
3Yellow Cards1
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Santos Laguna vs Monterrey

Santos Laguna and Monterrey drew 1-1 in Liga MX on December 2, 2019.

Goals: B. Lozano (20'), V. Janssen (57').

Santos Laguna controlled possession (61%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Corona in Torreón.