Santos Laguna 1–0 Monarcas: Result & Stats

Santos Laguna

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Monarcas

J. Furch 60'

1/14/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 2Estadio TSM Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Santos Laguna45%

×Draw25%

Monarcas30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchMonarcas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.27

Santos Laguna

1.60

Monarcas

1.27

Santos Laguna creates 26% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 36 away

1.65

creates per match

1.36

1.19

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.65

Monarcas

1.36

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.19

Monarcas

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Monarcas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Monarcas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

70%

Santos Laguna or Monarcas

75%

Draw or Monarcas

55%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

23%

Monarcas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

80%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

47%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

22%

Monarcas 1+ goals

72%

Monarcas 2+ goals

36%

Monarcas 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

60%

Monarcas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.19 · 147 matches

Monarcas away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.65 + Monarcas defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Monarcas attack 1.36 + Santos Laguna defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

45%

level

25%

Monarcas scores more

30%

Santos Laguna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Vázquez

Santos Laguna · M

7.3

Match Events

30'

37'

38'

40'

46'

G. Arteaga← J. Angulo

56'

R. Vilchis← C. Fierro

60'

B. Lozano← B. Garnica

60'

J. Furch↳ J. Vázquez

70'

S. Ferreira← R. Millar

77'

G. Lezcano← R. Sandoval

78'

E. Orrantía← A. Preciado

90'

Gabriel Achilier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosMonarcas

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots5

5Corners3

16Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots5

5On Target0

6Off Target4

4Blocked1

7Inside Box3

8Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

404Total Passes304

321Accurate Passes221

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2