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Monarcas vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

Monarcas
Monarcas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
M. Sansores 88' (pen)
D. Valdés 79' (pen)
R. Sandoval 51'
J. Furch 90+1'
7/28/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Monarcas47%
×Draw24%
Santos Laguna29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monarcas
1.71
Santos Laguna
1.28

Monarcas creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 144 away

creates per match

Monarcas
1.54
Santos Laguna
1.10

allows per match

Monarcas
1.46
Santos Laguna
1.87

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw
71%
Monarcas or Santos Laguna
76%
Draw or Santos Laguna
53%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+
25%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals
82%
Monarcas 2+ goals
51%
Monarcas 3+ goals
24%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
72%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
37%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)
62%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 37 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.87 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.54 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.71

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Monarcas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Monarcas scores more
47%
level
24%
Santos Laguna scores more
29%

Monarcas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
D. ValdésMonarcasMonarcas · F
8.6

Match Events

21'
Ray Sandoval
41'
Jesús Angulo
51'
R. Sandoval↳ C. Fierro
60'
D. De Buen← E. Orrantía
67'
J. Valadéz← E. Loeschbor
71'
M. Sansores← I. Ávila
73'
E. Herrera← O. Martínez
73'
C. Martínez← J. Rodríguez
79'
D. ValdésPenalty
80'
Hugo Nervo
80'
G. Lezcano← R. Sandoval
83'
Rodrigo Millar
88'
M. SansoresPenalty
90+1'
J. Furch↳ B. Lozano

Possession

50%Monarcas

Shots

17Monarcas

Pass accuracy

50%Monarcas

Statistics

MonarcasSantos
Overview
50%Possession50%
17Total Shots10
7Corners1
12Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots10
7On Target5
7Off Target2
3Blocked3
11Inside Box5
6Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
381Total Passes403
307Accurate Passes322
81%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Monarcas vs Santos Laguna

Monarcas beat Santos Laguna 3-1 in Liga MX on July 28, 2018.

Goals: R. Sandoval (51'), D. Valdés (79' pen), M. Sansores (88' pen), J. Furch (90+1').

Monarcas controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Jose Maria Morelos y Pavon in Morelia.