Monarcas 2–2 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

Monarcas

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Santos Laguna

É. Flores 42'

S. Ferreira 16'

H. Rodríguez 83'

D. Valdés 18'

10/26/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Generalísimo José María Morelos y Pavón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Monarcas48%

×Draw24%

Santos Laguna29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MonarcasExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.29

Monarcas

1.73

Santos Laguna

1.29

Monarcas creates 34% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 142 away

1.57

creates per match

1.10

1.49

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Monarcas

1.57

Santos Laguna

1.10

allows per match

Monarcas

1.49

Santos Laguna

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monarcas+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monarcas ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Monarcas or draw

71%

Monarcas or Santos Laguna

76%

Draw or Santos Laguna

52%

Winning margin

Monarcas wins by 2+

26%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Monarcas 1+ goals

82%

Monarcas 2+ goals

52%

Monarcas 3+ goals

25%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

72%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

37%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Monarcas (draw refunded)

62%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monarcas at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.88 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monarcas attack 1.57 + Santos Laguna defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Santos Laguna attack 1.10 + Monarcas defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Monarcas scores more

48%

level

24%

Santos Laguna scores more

29%

Monarcas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Monarcas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Valdés

Santos Laguna · F

9.1

Match Events

10'

Emanuel Loeschbor

16'

S. Ferreira↳ É. Flores

18'

D. Valdés

19'

Aldo Rocha

42'

É. Flores↳ R. Millar

61'

F. Aristeguieta← M. Sansores

68'

L. Mendoza← S. Ferreira

68'

69'

73'

82'

82'

E. Aguirre← E. Orrantía

83'

H. Rodríguez↳ D. Valdés

85'

Sebastián Sosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MonarcasSantos

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots22

4Corners8

21Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots22

3On Target6

5Off Target12

2Blocked4

7Inside Box13

3Outside Box9

Passing

50%Possession50%

347Total Passes321

257Accurate Passes244

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls11

4Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0