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Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
Preview
01:00
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
9/27/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio Corona
Big match
39%
CF Pachuca
model favours
35%26%39%

CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Santos Laguna35%
×Draw26%
CF Pachuca39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.32
CF Pachuca
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
CF Pachuca
1.34

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.50
CF Pachuca
1.47

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
61%
Santos Laguna or CF Pachuca
74%
Draw or CF Pachuca
65%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
15%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
73%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
38%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
15%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
76%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
41%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
47%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.18 + CF Pachuca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

CF Pachuca attack 1.34 + Santos Laguna defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
35%
level
26%
CF Pachuca scores more
39%

CF Pachuca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Santos Laguna raise their game against the top half — 28% wins vs the upper half, only 25% vs the lower
  • Santos Laguna sit 18, CF Pachuca 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Laguna
LWWWL
Pachuca
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santos Laguna face CF Pachuca (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with Santos Laguna hosting CF Pachuca. Match starts September 27, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Santos Laguna host CF Pachuca at Estadio Corona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.