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CF Pachuca vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2026

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
C. Sanchez 72'
V. Guzman 60', 35', 15'
J. Ramirez 89' (OG)
L. Di Yorio 1'
4/12/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 14Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CF Pachuca61%
×Draw20%
Santos Laguna18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
2.13
Santos Laguna
1.08

CF Pachuca creates 97% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.68
Santos Laguna
1.05

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.10
Santos Laguna
2.58

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
82%
CF Pachuca or Santos Laguna
80%
Draw or Santos Laguna
39%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
38%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
88%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
63%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
35%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
66%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
29%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
77%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.68 + Santos Laguna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.13

Santos Laguna attack 1.05 + CF Pachuca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
61%
level
20%
Santos Laguna scores more
18%

CF Pachuca at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
V. GuzmanCF PachucaCF Pachuca · M
10.0

Match Events

1'
L. Di Yorio↳ F. Villalba
15'
V. Guzman↳ Kenedy
35'
V. Guzman↳ E. Montiel
45+3'
Cristián Dájome
46'
R. Sordo← C. Dajome
51'
Bruno AmioneCard upgrade
52'
Bruno Amione
53'
E. Orona← N. Cedillo
57'
Javier Güemez
60'
V. Guzman↳ B. A. Garcia Caprizo
67'
A. Bautista← E. Montiel
72'
C. Sanchez
75'
J. Perez← E. Bullaude
82'
L. Quinones← Kenedy
82'
A. Dominguez← O. Idrissi
82'
D. Medina← L. Di Yorio
82'
T. Jimenez← F. Villalba
87'
P. Pedraza← V. Guzman
87'
J. Ramirez← S. Rondon
89'
J. RamirezOwn goal

Possession

62%CF

Shots

16CF

Pass accuracy

54%CF

Statistics

CFSantos
Overview
62%Possession38%
16Total Shots4
1.09Expected Goals (xG)0.64
4Corners1
15Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots4
8On Target1
7Off Target3
1Blocked0
9Inside Box2
7Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
540Total Passes326
479Accurate Passes251
89%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
-0.86Goals Prevented-0.86
Discipline
15Fouls9
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Santos Laguna

CF Pachuca beat Santos Laguna 4-2 in Liga MX on April 12, 2026.

Goals: L. Di Yorio (1'), V. Guzman (15', 35', 60'), C. Sanchez (72'), J. Ramirez (89' o.g.).

CF Pachuca controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.