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Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2021

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
A. Lozano 77'
O. Idrissi 64'
10/23/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Santos Laguna38%
×Draw25%
CF Pachuca37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
1.41
CF Pachuca
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 57 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.27
CF Pachuca
1.30

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.50
CF Pachuca
1.54

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
63%
Santos Laguna or CF Pachuca
75%
Draw or CF Pachuca
62%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
17%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
76%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
41%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
17%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
75%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
41%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
50%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.27 + CF Pachuca defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.41

CF Pachuca attack 1.30 + Santos Laguna defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
38%
level
25%
CF Pachuca scores more
37%

Santos Laguna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
O. IdrissiCF PachucaCF Pachuca · M
8.2

Match Events

10'
Anthony Lozano
18'
Jorge Berlanga
22'
Bruno Amione
32'
Franco FagúndezPenalty cancelled
38'
Emmanuel Echeverría
45+5'
Sergio Hernandez
46'
V. Loroña← Fran Villalba
46'
L. Rodríguez← J. Berlanga
52'
Oussama Idrissi
56'
Á. Mena← S. Hernández
57'
S. Rondón← Borja Bastón
64'
O. Idrissi↳ S. Rondón
66'
S. Muñóz← P. Aquino
66'
S. Mariscal← S. Naveda
66'
J. Carrillo← F. Fagúndez
72'
F. Gil← O. González
72'
N. Deossa← P. Pedraza
74'
S. Carrillo← R. Sordo
77'
A. Lozano
83'
Salvador Mariscal

Possession

53%Santos

Shots

9Santos

Pass accuracy

49%Santos

Statistics

SantosCF
Overview
53%Possession47%
9Total Shots24
5Corners8
13Fouls26
Shots
9Total Shots24
5On Target4
2Off Target9
2Blocked11
3Inside Box15
6Outside Box9
Passing
53%Possession47%
479Total Passes419
390Accurate Passes352
81%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls26
4Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Santos Laguna vs CF Pachuca

Santos Laguna and CF Pachuca drew 1-1 in Liga MX on October 23, 2024.

Goals: O. Idrissi (64'), A. Lozano (77').

Santos Laguna controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 24.

The match was played at Estadio Corona in Torreón.