CF Pachuca 2–1 Santos Laguna: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Santos Laguna

E. Rodríguez 45+7'

T. Jiménez 30' (OG)

J. Macías 89' (pen)

1/21/2025

Liga MX · Clausura - 2Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

CF Pachuca56%

×Draw22%

Santos Laguna22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchSantos Laguna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.10

CF Pachuca

1.90

Santos Laguna

1.10

CF Pachuca creates 73% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 52 away

1.49

creates per match

1.02

1.19

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.49

Santos Laguna

1.02

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.19

Santos Laguna

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Santos Laguna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

78%

CF Pachuca or Santos Laguna

78%

Draw or Santos Laguna

44%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

32%

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

85%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

56%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

29%

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

67%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

30%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

72%

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.49 + Santos Laguna defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.90

Santos Laguna attack 1.02 + CF Pachuca defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

56%

level

22%

Santos Laguna scores more

22%

CF Pachuca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

E. Rodríguez

CF Pachuca · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

Miguel RodriguezGoal cancelled

30'

T. JiménezOwn goal

42'

Cristián DájomeCard upgrade

44'

Cristián Dájome

45+7'

E. Rodríguez↳ John Kennedy

46'

S. Carrillo← J. Carrillo

46'

A. López← R. Sordo

49'

Anderson Santamaría

50'

Andres Micolta

52'

Eduardo Bauermann← A. Micolta

63'

L. Vega← R. Prieto

63'

S. Mariscal← P. Aquino

67'

O. González← E. Rodríguez

68'

J. López← John Kennedy

72'

Stephano Carrillo

74'

Oussama Idrissi

75'

J. Brígido← O. Idrissi

75'

I. Luna← A. Bautista

78'

J. Macías← T. Jiménez

86'

Luis Vega EspinozaPenalty confirmed

89'

J. MacíasPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFSantos

Overview

48%Possession52%

18Total Shots8

6Corners4

19Fouls20

Shots

18Total Shots8

7On Target2

6Off Target4

5Blocked2

8Inside Box3

10Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

387Total Passes410

320Accurate Passes330

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

19Fouls20

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0