Santos Laguna 0–0 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats

Santos Laguna

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CF Pachuca

4/7/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio TSM Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Santos Laguna44%

×Draw25%

CF Pachuca31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos LagunaExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.25

Santos Laguna

1.54

CF Pachuca

1.25

Santos Laguna creates 23% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 150 away

1.66

creates per match

1.32

1.18

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Santos Laguna

1.66

CF Pachuca

1.32

allows per match

Santos Laguna

1.18

CF Pachuca

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw

69%

Santos Laguna or CF Pachuca

75%

Draw or CF Pachuca

56%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+

22%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals

79%

Santos Laguna 2+ goals

45%

Santos Laguna 3+ goals

20%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

71%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

36%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)

59%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + CF Pachuca defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.54

CF Pachuca attack 1.32 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Santos Laguna scores more

44%

level

25%

CF Pachuca scores more

31%

Santos Laguna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

O. Murillo

CF Pachuca · D

7.8

Match Events

3'

33'

38'

40'

40'

45+1'

G. Arteaga← D. Quiñónes

58'

58'

65'

69'

75'

E. Orrantía← A. Preciado

75'

R. Castillo← I. Sosa

82'

Jorge Hernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosCF

Overview

42%Possession58%

16Total Shots11

4Corners4

9Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots11

1On Target4

10Off Target6

5Blocked1

12Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

329Total Passes449

261Accurate Passes361

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2