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Santa Fe vs Deportivo Cali — Primera A 2025

Santa Fe
Santa Fe
Preview
01:00
Deportivo Cali
Deportivo Cali
9/23/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 12
Big match
49%
Santa Fe
model favours
49%29%22%

Santa Fe are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Santa Fe49%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Cali22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santa Fe
1.30
Deportivo Cali
0.77

Santa Fe creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Santa Fe
1.46
Deportivo Cali
0.99

allows per match

Santa Fe
0.55
Deportivo Cali
1.14

finishing

Santa Fe-0.26scores less
Deportivo Cali+0.30scores more

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Deportivo Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw
78%
Santa Fe or Deportivo Cali
71%
Draw or Deportivo Cali
51%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+
23%
Deportivo Cali wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals
73%
Santa Fe 2+ goals
37%
Santa Fe 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Cali 1+ goals
54%
Deportivo Cali 2+ goals
18%
Deportivo Cali 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)
69%
Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.55 · 5 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.46 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.30

Deportivo Cali attack 0.99 + Santa Fe defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Santa Fe scores more
49%
level
29%
Deportivo Cali scores more
22%

Santa Fe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Deportivo Cali have won 4 in a row
  • Deportivo Cali score first in only 20% of matches
  • Santa Fe score first in only 25% of matches
  • 80% of Deportivo Cali’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Santa Fe have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Santa Fe
Attack-heavy
Deportivo Cali
Balanced
54%Possession49%
78%Pass accuracy78%
14.4Shots11.7
1.32xGBiggest gap1.04
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Santa FeDeportivo Cali

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

4
Santa Fe
1
Draws
0
Deportivo Cali
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
1–11–02–03–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Fe
WDWDW
Cali
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santa Fe face Deportivo Cali (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Santa Fe hosting Deportivo Cali. Match starts September 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.