Santa Fe 1–0 Deportivo Cali: Result & Stats

Santa Fe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Cali

H. Mosquera 90'

11/10/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 19Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Santa Fe49%

×Draw28%

Deportivo Cali23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa FeExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.81

Santa Fe

1.32

Deportivo Cali

0.81

Santa Fe creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

1.05

0.58

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Santa Fe

1.40

Deportivo Cali

1.05

allows per match

Santa Fe

0.58

Deportivo Cali

1.24

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Santa Fe-0.23scores less

Deportivo Cali+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Fe ↓

Deportivo Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Santa Fe or draw

77%

Santa Fe or Deportivo Cali

72%

Draw or Deportivo Cali

51%

Winning margin

Santa Fe wins by 2+

23%

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Santa Fe 1+ goals

73%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

38%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

56%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

19%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

68%

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santa Fe at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.58 · 6 matches

Deportivo Cali away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santa Fe attack 1.40 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Deportivo Cali attack 1.05 + Santa Fe defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Santa Fe scores more

49%

level

28%

Deportivo Cali scores more

23%

Santa Fe at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

E. Olivera

Santa Fe · D

8.0

Match Events

9'

Andrey Estupiñán

55'

Y. Velasquez← J. Torres

66'

J. Sosa← J. Melendez

66'

Y. Moreno← E. Lopez

73'

Y. A. Perlaza Perea← A. Zapata

73'

J. Ramos← D. Torres

77'

Luis Orejuela← F. Viafara

77'

J. Aponza← A. Estupinan

77'

J. Arango← J. Martinez

82'

Matias Orozco

83'

Joaquín Sosa

86'

Yairo Moreno

87'

J. Galindo← A. Hurtado

90+11'

Hugo Rodallega

90+7'

Harold Santiago Mosquera

90+11'

Andres Colorado

90+9'

Luis Orejuela

90+1'

A. Colorado← Y. Quintero

90'

H. Mosquera↳ Y. Moreno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantaDeportivo

Overview

56%Possession44%

24Total Shots13

1.09Expected Goals (xG)0.78

10Corners6

8Fouls12

Shots

24Total Shots13

4On Target2

11Off Target9

9Blocked2

12Inside Box6

12Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

392Total Passes307

300Accurate Passes239

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls12

4Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2