Deportivo Cali 1–3 Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Santa Fe

J. Marulanda 8'

H. Mosquera 68'

H. Rodallega 31'

R. Bustamante 21' (OG)

8/21/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 6Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Deportivo Cali35%

×Draw28%

Santa Fe37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.16

Deportivo Cali

1.13

Santa Fe

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 42 away

1.13

creates per match

1.29

1.02

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.13

Santa Fe

1.29

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

1.02

Santa Fe

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

63%

Deportivo Cali or Santa Fe

72%

Draw or Santa Fe

65%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

14%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

11%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

69%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

32%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

49%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 48 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.13 + Santa Fe defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Santa Fe attack 1.29 + Deportivo Cali defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

35%

level

28%

Santa Fe scores more

37%

Santa Fe at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. Rodallega

Santa Fe · F

8.2

Match Events

1'

Julian Millan

8'

J. Marulanda↳ A. Andrade

21'

R. BustamanteOwn goal

31'

H. Rodallega↳ H. Mosquera

33'

Jordy Ararat

36'

Yulián Gómez

46'

F. Meza← M. Rea

58'

J. Melendez← J. Monroy

58'

J. Duque← J. Zuluaga

59'

K. Osorio← R. Bustamante

59'

Á. Plata← A. Estupiñán

60'

Andrés Mosquera

65'

Kelvin OsorioPenalty cancelled

68'

H. Mosquera↳ H. Rodallega

71'

D. Ramírez← J. Millán

76'

J. Barrera← J. Reina

76'

F. Viáfara← A. Andrade

79'

V. Hernández← H. Mosquera

82'

Jhon Duque

86'

Hugo Rodallega

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoSanta

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots8

9Corners2

8Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots8

3On Target3

7Off Target3

1Blocked2

5Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

387Total Passes265

308Accurate Passes184

80%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls18

1Yellow Cards5

7Offsides1