Deportivo Cali 1–1 Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Deportivo Cali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Santa Fe

J. Quinones 55'

H. Rodallega 31'

3/19/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 12Estadio Deportivo Cali

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Deportivo Cali36%

×Draw30%

Santa Fe34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo CaliExpected goals in this matchSanta Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.05

Deportivo Cali

1.09

Santa Fe

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 66 away

1.15

creates per match

1.14

0.96

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Deportivo Cali

1.15

Santa Fe

1.14

allows per match

Deportivo Cali

0.96

Santa Fe

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Cali+0.00on par

Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cali ↓

Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Cali or draw

66%

Deportivo Cali or Santa Fe

70%

Draw or Santa Fe

64%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cali wins by 2+

14%

Santa Fe wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportivo Cali 1+ goals

66%

Deportivo Cali 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo Cali 3+ goals

10%

Santa Fe 1+ goals

65%

Santa Fe 2+ goals

28%

Santa Fe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cali (draw refunded)

51%

Santa Fe (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cali at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.96 · 54 matches

Santa Fe away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cali attack 1.15 + Santa Fe defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Santa Fe attack 1.14 + Deportivo Cali defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Deportivo Cali scores more

36%

level

30%

Santa Fe scores more

34%

Deportivo Cali at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Deportivo Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Quinones

Deportivo Cali · D

7.9

Match Events

31'

H. Rodallega↳ M. Puerta

33'

Y. Velasquez

45+2'

C. Mafla

45+8'

J. Quinones← J. C. Caldera Alvis

46'

F. Viafara← Luis Orejuela

49'

R. Pajaro

55'

J. Quinones↳ A. Correa

60'

G. Cuellar← R. Pajaro

60'

J. Arango← A. Hurtado

63'

M. Lovera← J. Torres

70'

H. Palacios← M. Puerta

70'

E. Mosquera← L. Palacios

73'

G. Cuellar

78'

Y. Quintero← M. Orozco

85'

N. Bustos← H. Rodallega

89'

89'

90'

90+2'

90+5'

K. D. Toscano Bassa← D. Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoSanta

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots9

0.63Expected Goals (xG)0.88

6Corners9

14Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots9

7On Target3

4Off Target4

3Blocked2

6Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

270Total Passes301

200Accurate Passes235

74%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

-0.48Goals Prevented-0.48

Discipline

14Fouls6

4Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2