Sanna Khanh Hoa 1–2 Binh Dinh: Result & Stats

Sanna Khanh Hoa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Binh Dinh

5/26/2024

V.League 1 · Round 21Sân vận động 19 tháng 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa31%

×Draw27%

Binh Dinh43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanna Khanh HoaExpected goals in this matchBinh Dinh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.39

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.14

Binh Dinh

1.39

Binh Dinh creates 22% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 54 away

1.03

creates per match

1.17

1.60

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.03

Binh Dinh

1.17

allows per match

Sanna Khanh Hoa

1.60

Binh Dinh

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par

Binh Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanna Khanh Hoa ↓

Binh Dinh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sanna Khanh Hoa or draw

57%

Sanna Khanh Hoa or Binh Dinh

73%

Draw or Binh Dinh

69%

Winning margin

Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+

12%

Binh Dinh wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals

68%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals

32%

Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals

11%

Binh Dinh 1+ goals

75%

Binh Dinh 2+ goals

40%

Binh Dinh 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)

42%

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanna Khanh Hoa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

Binh Dinh away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.24 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 1.03 + Binh Dinh defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Binh Dinh attack 1.17 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more

31%

level

27%

Binh Dinh scores more

43%

Binh Dinh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Binh Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff