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Binh Dinh vs Sanna Khanh Hoa — V.League 1 2019

Binh Dinh
Binh Dinh
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Sanna Khanh Hoa
Sanna Khanh Hoa
3/9/2024V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 13Sân vận động Qui Nhơn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Binh Dinh50%
×Draw25%
Sanna Khanh Hoa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Dinh
1.60
Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.04

Binh Dinh creates 54% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 35 away

creates per match

Binh Dinh
1.41
Sanna Khanh Hoa
0.91

allows per match

Binh Dinh
1.17
Sanna Khanh Hoa
1.80

finishing

Binh Dinh+0.00on par
Sanna Khanh Hoa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Dinh ↓

Sanna Khanh Hoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Binh Dinh or draw
75%
Binh Dinh or Sanna Khanh Hoa
75%
Draw or Sanna Khanh Hoa
50%

Winning margin

Binh Dinh wins by 2+
26%
Sanna Khanh Hoa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Binh Dinh 1+ goals
80%
Binh Dinh 2+ goals
47%
Binh Dinh 3+ goals
22%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 1+ goals
65%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 2+ goals
28%
Sanna Khanh Hoa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Binh Dinh (draw refunded)
67%
Sanna Khanh Hoa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Dinh at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.17 · 54 matches

Sanna Khanh Hoa away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Dinh attack 1.41 + Sanna Khanh Hoa defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sanna Khanh Hoa attack 0.91 + Binh Dinh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Binh Dinh scores more
50%
level
25%
Sanna Khanh Hoa scores more
25%

Binh Dinh at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Binh Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Binh Dinh 2–2 Sanna Khanh Hoa

Binh Dinh and Sanna Khanh Hoa drew 2-2 in V.League 1 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Qui Nhơn in Qui Nhon.