Şanlıurfaspor 0–3 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

Şanlıurfaspor

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Başakşehir

A. Epureanu 83'

S. Şentürk 69', 23'

1/21/2016

Türkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 5Şanlıurfa GAP Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Şanlıurfaspor33%

×Draw25%

Başakşehir42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŞanlıurfasporExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.47

Şanlıurfaspor

1.27

Başakşehir

1.47

Başakşehir creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.40

creates per match

1.54

1.40

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.40

Başakşehir

1.54

allows per match

Şanlıurfaspor

1.40

Başakşehir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şanlıurfaspor ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Şanlıurfaspor or draw

58%

Şanlıurfaspor or Başakşehir

75%

Draw or Başakşehir

67%

Winning margin

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

14%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

72%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

36%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

14%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

77%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

43%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

44%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şanlıurfaspor at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.40 + Başakşehir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Başakşehir attack 1.54 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

33%

level

25%

Başakşehir scores more

42%

Başakşehir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

S. Şentürk

46'

A. Aras← M. Ersöz

46'

H. Köçer← H. Balioğlu

58'

E. Kartal← Edinho

66'

E. Višća← C. Alkılıç

66'

M. Tekdemir← B. İrtegün

69'

S. Şentürk

82'

H. Taş← S. Cikalleshi

83'

A. Epureanu

Şanlıurfaspor

Başakşehir

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: T. Kerimoğlu

46'▲A. Aras←▼M. Ersöz

46'▲H. Köçer←▼H. Balioğlu

58'▲E. Kartal←▼Edinho

Şanlıurfaspor substitutes

ArasKöçerKartalAskarYılmazLuaLua

Manager: A. Avcı

66'▲E. Višća←▼C. Alkılıç

66'▲M. Tekdemir←▼B. İrtegün

82'▲H. Taş←▼S. Cikalleshi

Başakşehir substitutes

VišćaTekdemirTaşErdemMadureiraÇakırUçar