Başakşehir 2–0 Şanlıurfaspor: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Şanlıurfaspor

E. İlkhan 72'

D. Pelkas 63'

12/7/2023

Türkiye Kupası · 4th RoundBaşakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Başakşehir61%

×Draw20%

Şanlıurfaspor19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this matchŞanlıurfaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.11

Başakşehir

2.17

Şanlıurfaspor

1.11

Başakşehir creates 95% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

2.33

creates per match

1.56

0.67

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.33

Şanlıurfaspor

1.56

allows per match

Başakşehir

0.67

Şanlıurfaspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Şanlıurfaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

81%

Başakşehir or Şanlıurfaspor

80%

Draw or Şanlıurfaspor

39%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

38%

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

89%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

64%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

36%

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

67%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

30%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

77%

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Şanlıurfaspor away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.33 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.56 + Başakşehir defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Başakşehir scores more

61%

level

20%

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

19%

Başakşehir at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

46'

63'

64'

64'

E. İlkhan← M. Tekdemir

64'

64'

72'

75'

75'

B. Aydoğmuş← D. Pelkas

78'

A. Toure← M. Arslantaş

81'

João Figueiredo← S. Gürler

Statistics

BaşakşehirŞanlıurfaspor

Overview

13Corners1