Başakşehir 4–1 Şanlıurfaspor: Result & Stats

Başakşehir

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Şanlıurfaspor

H. Taş 79'

S. Cikalleshi 63', 58', 12'

Cicero 67'

12/16/2015

Türkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 1Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Başakşehir65%

×Draw19%

Şanlıurfaspor17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaşakşehirExpected goals in this matchŞanlıurfaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.09

Başakşehir

2.33

Şanlıurfaspor

1.09

Başakşehir creates 114% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

2.46

creates per match

1.50

0.69

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Başakşehir

2.46

Şanlıurfaspor

1.50

allows per match

Başakşehir

0.69

Şanlıurfaspor

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Başakşehir ↓

Şanlıurfaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Başakşehir or draw

83%

Başakşehir or Şanlıurfaspor

81%

Draw or Şanlıurfaspor

35%

Winning margin

Başakşehir wins by 2+

42%

Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Başakşehir 1+ goals

90%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

67%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

41%

Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals

66%

Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals

30%

Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

80%

Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Başakşehir at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Şanlıurfaspor away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Başakşehir attack 2.46 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.33

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.50 + Başakşehir defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Başakşehir scores more

65%

level

19%

Şanlıurfaspor scores more

17%

Başakşehir at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Başakşehir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Cikalleshi

37'

H. Taş← S. Şentürk

46'

A. Epureanu← B. İrtegün

46'

E. Kasapoğlu← M. Aşan

46'

K. Karakaş← K. Sönmez

58'

S. Cikalleshi

63'

S. Cikalleshi

67'

Cicero

77'

Doka Madureira← C. Şahin

79'

H. Taş

81'

H. Köçer← V. Aksu

Başakşehir

Şanlıurfaspor

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

Manager: A. Avcı

37'▲H. Taş←▼S. Şentürk

46'▲A. Epureanu←▼B. İrtegün

77'▲Doka Madureira←▼C. Şahin

Başakşehir substitutes

TaşEpureanuMadureiraErdemÇakırBatdalMossoró

Manager: T. Kerimoğlu

46'▲E. Kasapoğlu←▼M. Aşan

46'▲K. Karakaş←▼K. Sönmez

81'▲H. Köçer←▼V. Aksu

Şanlıurfaspor substitutes

KasapoğluKarakaşKöçerValenteDağEdinhoYılmaz