Sangju Sangmu FC 0–0 Gyeongnam FC: Result & Stats

Sangju Sangmu FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gyeongnam FC

8/8/2021

K League 2 · Round 24Gimcheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sangju Sangmu FC54%

×Draw24%

Gyeongnam FC22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sangju Sangmu FCExpected goals in this matchGyeongnam FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.99

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.69

Gyeongnam FC

0.99

Sangju Sangmu FC creates 71% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 117 away

1.94

creates per match

1.20

0.78

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.94

Gyeongnam FC

1.20

allows per match

Sangju Sangmu FC

0.78

Gyeongnam FC

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sangju Sangmu FC ↓

Gyeongnam FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sangju Sangmu FC or draw

78%

Sangju Sangmu FC or Gyeongnam FC

76%

Draw or Gyeongnam FC

46%

Winning margin

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+

29%

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals

82%

Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals

50%

Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals

24%

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals

63%

Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals

26%

Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

71%

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sangju Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.78 · 36 matches

Gyeongnam FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.44 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.94 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.20 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more

54%

level

24%

Gyeongnam FC scores more

22%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff