Gyeongnam FC 1–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC: Result & Stats

Gyeongnam FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

11/11/2023

K League 2 · Round 38Changwon Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Gyeongnam FC31%

×Draw25%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyeongnam FCExpected goals in this matchGimcheon Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.54

Gyeongnam FC

1.27

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.54

Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 36 away

1.34

creates per match

1.69

1.40

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Gyeongnam FC

1.34

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.69

allows per match

Gyeongnam FC

1.40

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongnam FC ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gyeongnam FC or draw

56%

Gyeongnam FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

75%

Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

69%

Winning margin

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+

13%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals

72%

Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals

36%

Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals

14%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

79%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

45%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)

42%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongnam FC at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 119 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.34 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.69 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gyeongnam FC scores more

31%

level

25%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

44%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff