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Gyeongnam FC vs Sangju Sangmu FC — K League 2 2026

Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FC
9/18/2021K League 2K League 2 · Round 30Changwon Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Gyeongnam FC31%
×Draw25%
Sangju Sangmu FC44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongnam FC
1.27
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.54

Sangju Sangmu FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 36 away

creates per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.34
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.69

allows per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.40
Sangju Sangmu FC
1.19

finishing

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par
Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongnam FC ↓

Sangju Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gyeongnam FC or draw
56%
Gyeongnam FC or Sangju Sangmu FC
75%
Draw or Sangju Sangmu FC
69%

Winning margin

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
13%
Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
72%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
36%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
14%
Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals
79%
Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals
45%
Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
42%
Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongnam FC at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 119 matches

Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.34 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.69 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gyeongnam FC scores more
31%
level
25%
Sangju Sangmu FC scores more
44%

Sangju Sangmu FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sangju Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 2: Gyeongnam FC 2–3 Sangju Sangmu FC

Sangju Sangmu FC beat Gyeongnam FC 3-2 in K League 2 on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Changwon Football Center in Changwon.