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Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale — J1 League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Kawasaki Frontale
Kawasaki Frontale
M. Kato 20'
S. Nakamura 11'
T. Ito 43'
5/30/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · 7th placeEdion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima46%
×Draw25%
Kawasaki Frontale29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.58
Kawasaki Frontale
1.21

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 31% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.83
Kawasaki Frontale
1.47

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.95
Kawasaki Frontale
1.33

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima-0.53scores less
Kawasaki Frontale+0.18scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
71%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Kawasaki Frontale
75%
Draw or Kawasaki Frontale
54%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
23%
Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
79%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
47%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
21%
Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals
70%
Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals
34%
Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
61%
Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.83 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.47 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
46%
level
25%
Kawasaki Frontale scores more
29%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39
S. NakamuraSanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima · F
8.3

Match Events

9'
S. Kawahara← Y. Yamamoto
11'
S. Nakamura↳ T. Matsumoto
20'
M. Kato↳ A. Suzuki
35'
Marcinho
40'
Kyosuke MochiyamaGoal cancelled
43'
T. Ito
67'
K. Kinoshita← A. Suzuki
67'
Y. Nakajima← M. Kato
69'
K. Konno← Marcinho
69'
R. Osa← T. Ito
69'
L. Romanic← K. Mochiyama
78'
Y. Chajima← S. Higashi
88'
N. Maeda← S. Nakamura
88'
S. Kanda← K. Tachibanada

Possession

46%Sanfrecce

Shots

18Sanfrecce

Pass accuracy

48%Sanfrecce

Statistics

SanfrecceKawasaki
Overview
46%Possession54%
18Total Shots10
1.50Expected Goals (xG)1.27
6Corners2
11Fouls6
Shots
18Total Shots10
7On Target3
8Off Target5
3Blocked2
14Inside Box7
4Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
428Total Passes504
327Accurate Passes408
76%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls6
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kawasaki Frontale

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Kawasaki Frontale 2-1 in J1 League on May 30, 2026.

Goals: S. Nakamura (11'), M. Kato (20'), T. Ito (43').

Kawasaki Frontale controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 18.

The match was played at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima in Hiroshima.