Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–2 Kawasaki Frontale

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kawasaki Frontale

H. Araki 86'

A. Sasaki 90'

Marcinho 50'

5/31/2025

J1 League · Round 19Hiroshima Big Arch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima46%

×Draw25%

Kawasaki Frontale29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaExpected goals in this matchKawasaki Frontale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.21

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.58

Kawasaki Frontale

1.21

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 31% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

1.83

creates per match

1.47

0.95

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.83

Kawasaki Frontale

1.47

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.95

Kawasaki Frontale

1.33

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima-0.53scores less

Kawasaki Frontale+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Kawasaki Frontale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

71%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Kawasaki Frontale

75%

Draw or Kawasaki Frontale

54%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

23%

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

79%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

47%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

21%

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

70%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

34%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

61%

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Kawasaki Frontale away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.83 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.47 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

46%

level

25%

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

29%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

H. Araki

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · D

8.0

Match Events

46'

D. Suga← N. Arai

46'

S. Nakamura← V. Germain

50'

Marcinho

60'

N. Maeda← M. Kato

64'

Y. Kobayashi← S. Yamada

66'

S. Tanabe← S. van Wermeskerken

75'

Akihiro Ienaga

76'

Marcos Junior← S. Higashi

79'

K. Tachibanada← Y. Yamamoto

79'

Y. Ozeki← Y. Wakizaka

79'

Y. Segawa← Marcinho

83'

S. Koshimichi← S. Nakano

84'

Yusuke Segawa

86'

H. Araki↳ S. Nakamura

90+4'

Naoki Maeda

90'

A. Sasaki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanfrecceKawasaki

Overview

48%Possession52%

19Total Shots13

1.59Expected Goals (xG)2.01

5Corners3

5Fouls4

Shots

19Total Shots13

7On Target7

7Off Target2

5Blocked4

16Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

491Total Passes544

405Accurate Passes443

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

5Fouls4

1Yellow Cards2