Kawasaki Frontale 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Kawasaki Frontale

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Marcinho 23'

M. Mitsuta 88'

6/29/2024

J1 League · Round 21Uvance Todoroki Stadium by Fujitsu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Kawasaki Frontale35%

×Draw24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawasaki FrontaleExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.61

Kawasaki Frontale

1.45

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.61

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

1.69

creates per match

1.79

1.44

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.69

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.79

allows per match

Kawasaki Frontale

1.44

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.21

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Kawasaki Frontale+0.31scores more

Sanfrecce Hiroshima-0.43scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawasaki Frontale ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kawasaki Frontale or draw

59%

Kawasaki Frontale or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

76%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

65%

Winning margin

Kawasaki Frontale wins by 2+

16%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Kawasaki Frontale 1+ goals

77%

Kawasaki Frontale 2+ goals

42%

Kawasaki Frontale 3+ goals

18%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

80%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

48%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kawasaki Frontale (draw refunded)

45%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawasaki Frontale at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.44 · 29 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawasaki Frontale attack 1.69 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.79 + Kawasaki Frontale defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kawasaki Frontale scores more

35%

level

24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

41%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Mitsuta

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · M

8.2

Match Events

23'

Marcinho

35'

Yasuto Wakizaka

46'

Y. Nakajima← Douglas Vieira

61'

Sho Sasaki

62'

Y. Kobayashi← S. Yamada

65'

T. Miyagi← Marcinho

67'

Asahi Sasaki

70'

S. Koshimichi← N. Arai

70'

P. Sotiriou← M. Kato

77'

Marcos Júnior← S. Higashi

77'

Ezequiel← T. Matsumoto

83'

T. Ominami← Y. Wakizaka

83'

R. Oshima← D. Tono

88'

M. Mitsuta↳ Ezequiel

90+1'

Kota Takai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KawasakiSanfrecce

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots15

4Corners4

13Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots15

7On Target3

4Off Target4

2Blocked8

7Inside Box10

6Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

366Total Passes481

278Accurate Passes381

76%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2