Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–1 Fagiano Okayama

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fagiano Okayama

R. Sato 58'

4/12/2025

J1 League · Round 10Hiroshima Big Arch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima56%

×Draw24%

Fagiano Okayama20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaExpected goals in this matchFagiano Okayama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.95

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.75

Fagiano Okayama

0.95

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 84% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.83

creates per match

0.96

0.95

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.83

Fagiano Okayama

0.96

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.95

Fagiano Okayama

1.67

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima-0.53scores less

Fagiano Okayama+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Fagiano Okayama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

80%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Fagiano Okayama

76%

Draw or Fagiano Okayama

44%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

31%

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

83%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

52%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

25%

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

61%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

25%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

73%

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.67 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.83 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fagiano Okayama attack 0.96 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

56%

level

24%

Fagiano Okayama scores more

20%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

49

S. Brodersen

Fagiano Okayama · G

7.7

Match Events

29'

S. Nakamura← V. Germain

46'

T. Shiotani← S. Koshimichi

46'

S. Higashi← D. Suga

56'

R. Sato← M. Matsumoto

58'

R. Sato

67'

M. Kato← N. Maeda

76'

Y. Yanagi← D. Tagami

76'

Kamiya Yuta← A. Esaka

76'

K. Ichimi← Lucao

82'

M. Ohara← S. Tanaka

85'

R. Takeuchi← R. Tabei

90+1'

Hayao Kawabe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanfrecceFagiano

Overview

64%Possession36%

14Total Shots9

0.75Expected Goals (xG)0.98

9Corners5

10Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target3

7Off Target2

4Blocked4

10Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

500Total Passes287

402Accurate Passes198

80%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1