Fagiano Okayama 1–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Fagiano Okayama

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Leo Gaucho 83'

5/2/2026

J1 League · Round 14City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Fagiano Okayama31%

×Draw25%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.57

Fagiano Okayama

1.29

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.57

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

1.38

creates per match

1.79

1.35

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.38

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.79

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.35

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.21

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.50scores less

Sanfrecce Hiroshima-0.43scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

56%

Fagiano Okayama or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

75%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

69%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

13%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

72%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

37%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

14%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

79%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

46%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

42%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.38 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.79 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

31%

level

25%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

44%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

T. Yamane

Fagiano Okayama · M

8.0

Match Events

28'

Takaya Kimura

46'

K. Kinoshita← A. Suzuki

46'

N. Arai← S. Higashi

55'

J. Nishikawa← T. Kimura

55'

Leo Gaucho← Lucao

58'

Arai Naoto

60'

S. Nakamura← T. Arslan

63'

H. Motoyama← M. Matsumoto

63'

S. Sasaki← H. Araki

66'

Shuto NakanoPenalty cancelled

73'

A. Esaka← R. Takeuchi

73'

K. Ichimi← K. Kawano

75'

Kazunari Ichimi

83'

Leo Gaucho↳ T. Yamane

86'

M. Kato← T. Yamasaki

90+1'

Léo Gaúcho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FagianoSanfrecce

Overview

40%Possession60%

13Total Shots11

5Corners4

17Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots11

2On Target2

6Off Target6

5Blocked3

10Inside Box10

3Outside Box1

Passing

40%Possession60%

285Total Passes438

200Accurate Passes339

70%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2