Fagiano Okayama 0–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Fagiano Okayama

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

S. Nakamura 90'

7/5/2025

J1 League · Round 23City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Fagiano Okayama31%

×Draw25%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.57

Fagiano Okayama

1.29

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.57

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 22% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

1.38

creates per match

1.79

1.35

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.38

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.79

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.35

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.21

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.50scores less

Sanfrecce Hiroshima-0.43scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

56%

Fagiano Okayama or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

75%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

69%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

13%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

72%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

37%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

14%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

79%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

46%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

42%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.38 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.79 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

31%

level

25%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

44%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

H. Araki

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · D

7.9

Match Events

46'

S. Tanaka← Y. Nakajima

46'

K. Kinoshita← V. Germain

54'

H. Motoyama← T. Yanagi

54'

Werik Popo← T. Kimura

54'

M. Kato← R. Germain

65'

Ataru Esaka

71'

H. Iwabuchi← Lucao

71'

S. Higashi← S. Sasaki

82'

N. Maeda← N. Arai

86'

R. Takeuchi← Kamiya Yuta

86'

R. Sueyoshi← A. Esaka

90+9'

Yugo Tatsuta

90'

S. Nakamura↳ K. Kinoshita

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FagianoSanfrecce

Overview

35%Possession65%

7Total Shots16

0.63Expected Goals (xG)1.53

5Corners13

12Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots16

3On Target4

4Off Target7

0Blocked5

2Inside Box12

5Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

239Total Passes434

151Accurate Passes333

63%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Fagiano Okayama 1-0 in J1 League on July 5, 2025.

Goals: S. Nakamura (90').

Sanfrecce Hiroshima controlled possession (65%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.

Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — J1 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima