Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League 2018

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
K. Kinoshita 90' (pen)
D. Cools 86' (OG)
Thiago Andrade 12'
4/25/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 12Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima54%
×Draw22%
Cerezo Osaka24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.95
Cerezo Osaka
1.25

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 56% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.88
Cerezo Osaka
1.56

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0.93
Cerezo Osaka
2.02

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima-0.66scores less
Cerezo Osaka+0.19scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Cerezo Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw
76%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Cerezo Osaka
78%
Draw or Cerezo Osaka
46%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+
31%
Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals
86%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals
58%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals
31%
Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
71%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
36%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)
69%
Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.93 · 18 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.02 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.88 + Cerezo Osaka defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.95

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.56 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more
54%
level
22%
Cerezo Osaka scores more
24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
K. NakamuraCerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka · G
8.5

Match Events

12'
Thiago Andrade
46'
S. Sakuragawa← Thiago Andrade
53'
Ayumu Ohata
56'
K. Kinoshita← T. Arslan
56'
S. Nakano← Y. Nakajima
63'
Shiotani Tsukasa
63'
S. Uejo← S. Homma
72'
N. Maeda← A. Suzuki
72'
R. Germain← M. Kato
78'
S. Kagawa← M. Shibayama
78'
D. Cools← H. Okuda
85'
M. Ohara← T. Matsumoto
86'
D. CoolsOwn goal
88'
Y. Yokoyama← M. Nakajima
90+1'
Kinoshita KosukePenalty confirmed
90'
K. KinoshitaPenalty

Possession

59%Sanfrecce

Shots

16Sanfrecce

Pass accuracy

52%Sanfrecce

Statistics

SanfrecceCerezo
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots11
2.66Expected Goals (xG)1.01
11Corners5
9Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots11
6On Target5
4Off Target4
6Blocked2
12Inside Box6
4Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
520Total Passes368
416Accurate Passes275
80%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides6

J1 League: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–1 Cerezo Osaka

Sanfrecce Hiroshima beat Cerezo Osaka 2-1 in J1 League on April 25, 2026.

Goals: Thiago Andrade (12'), D. Cools (86' o.g.), K. Kinoshita (90' pen).

Sanfrecce Hiroshima controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima in Hiroshima.