Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 Cerezo Osaka

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cerezo Osaka

T. Arslan 85', 78'

8/11/2024

J1 League · Round 26Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima52%

×Draw23%

Cerezo Osaka25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sanfrecce HiroshimaExpected goals in this matchCerezo Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.21

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.82

Cerezo Osaka

1.21

Sanfrecce Hiroshima creates 50% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

1.83

creates per match

1.47

0.95

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.83

Cerezo Osaka

1.47

allows per match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

0.95

Cerezo Osaka

1.81

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Sanfrecce Hiroshima-0.53scores less

Cerezo Osaka+0.01on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima ↓

Cerezo Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw

75%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima or Cerezo Osaka

77%

Draw or Cerezo Osaka

48%

Winning margin

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

29%

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

84%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

54%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

27%

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

70%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

34%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

67%

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.83 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.47 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

52%

level

23%

Cerezo Osaka scores more

25%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

T. Arslan

Sanfrecce Hiroshima · M

8.6

Match Events

46'

Douglas Vieira← T. Shiotani

55'

Makoto Mitsuta

63'

T. Arslan← H. Kawabe

63'

S. Koshimichi← N. Arai

66'

S. Kitano← M. Shibayama

67'

Y. Nakajima← M. Mitsuta

73'

A. Inoue← Douglas Vieira

76'

Yotaro Nakajima

76'

Y. Hirano← H. Okuno

76'

R. Yamasaki← H. Tameda

78'

T. Arslan↳ A. Inoue

82'

Vitor Bueno← K. Noborizato

82'

R. Sakata← R. Nishio

85'

T. Arslan

90+2'

Léo Ceará

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanfrecceCerezo

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots9

1.74Expected Goals (xG)0.96

4Corners1

17Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target2

7Off Target5

5Blocked2

9Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

447Total Passes486

349Accurate Passes382

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1