Cerezo Osaka 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Cerezo Osaka

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

L. Fernandes 35' (pen)

K. Kinoshita 72'

8/31/2025

J1 League · Round 28Yodoko Sakura Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Cerezo Osaka37%

×Draw24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerezo OsakaExpected goals in this matchSanfrecce Hiroshima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.51

Cerezo Osaka

1.48

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

1.74

creates per match

1.79

1.23

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka

1.74

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.79

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka

1.23

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

1.21

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.14scores more

Sanfrecce Hiroshima-0.43scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Sanfrecce Hiroshima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw

62%

Cerezo Osaka or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

76%

Draw or Sanfrecce Hiroshima

63%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

18%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

77%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

43%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

19%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1+ goals

78%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2+ goals

44%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

49%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.23 · 24 matches

Sanfrecce Hiroshima away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.74 + Sanfrecce Hiroshima defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sanfrecce Hiroshima attack 1.79 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more

37%

level

24%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima scores more

38%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sanfrecce Hiroshima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

L. Fernandes

Cerezo Osaka · M

8.0

Match Events

35'

L. FernandesPenalty

46'

S. Sasaki← T. Shiotani

46'

K. Kinoshita← N. Maeda

57'

Kyohei Yoshino

62'

N. Arai← S. Higashi

66'

R. Sakata← Thiago Andrade

66'

Rafael Ratao← M. Shibayama

72'

M. Kato← S. Tanaka

72'

K. Kinoshita↳ Kim Ju-Sung

78'

Ryo Germain

83'

Yotaro Nakajima

88'

H. Kida← S. Kagawa

90+2'

V. Germain← R. Germain

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CerezoSanfrecce

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots10

1.96Expected Goals (xG)0.79

8Corners6

9Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots10

6On Target2

3Off Target3

5Blocked5

11Inside Box4

3Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

348Total Passes337

253Accurate Passes255

73%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides5