San Martin S.J. 0–1 Talleres Cordoba

San Martin S.J.

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Talleres Cordoba

G. Benavidez 64'

2/13/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 5Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.38%

×Draw31%

Talleres Cordoba31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Martin S.J.Expected goals in this matchTalleres Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.94

San Martin S.J.

1.07

Talleres Cordoba

0.94

San Martin S.J. creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

0.89

creates per match

0.94

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

San Martin S.J.

0.89

Talleres Cordoba

0.94

allows per match

San Martin S.J.

0.94

Talleres Cordoba

1.26

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par

Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Talleres Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw

69%

San Martin S.J. or Talleres Cordoba

69%

Draw or Talleres Cordoba

62%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

15%

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

66%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

29%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

9%

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

61%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

24%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

55%

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.94 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more

38%

level

31%

Talleres Cordoba scores more

31%

San Martin S.J. at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

G. Herrera

Talleres Cordoba · G

8.5

Match Events

22'

Ayrton Portillo

30'

Gino Olguin

33'

Augusto Schott

46'

N. Pelaitay← G. Olguin

57'

Rodrigo Caseres

59'

J. Cavallaro← J. Menendez

59'

M. Iacobellis← T. Fernandez

59'

S. Gonzalez← G. Moreyra

60'

R. Botta← E. Reynoso

60'

M. A. Galarza← U. Ortegoza

60'

G. Benavidez← A. Schott

64'

G. Benavidez

73'

E. Pernia← S. Jaurena

77'

J. Portilla← M. Galarza

79'

Federico Anselmo

85'

C. Tarragona← F. Girotti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanTalleres

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots16

4Corners2

8Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots16

4On Target7

6Off Target7

3Blocked2

4Inside Box7

9Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

362Total Passes463

259Accurate Passes376

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4