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San Martin S.J. vs Talleres Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
M. Gelabert 69', 8'
J. Arias 90+3'
4/7/2019Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 25Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.38%
×Draw31%
Talleres Cordoba31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin S.J.
1.07
Talleres Cordoba
0.94

San Martin S.J. creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

San Martin S.J.
0.89
Talleres Cordoba
0.94

allows per match

San Martin S.J.
0.94
Talleres Cordoba
1.26

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par
Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Talleres Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw
69%
San Martin S.J. or Talleres Cordoba
69%
Draw or Talleres Cordoba
62%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
15%
Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
66%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
29%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
9%
Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
61%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
24%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
55%
Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.94 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more
38%
level
31%
Talleres Cordoba scores more
31%

San Martin S.J. at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
M. GelabertSan Martin S.J.San Martin S.J. · M
8.0

Match Events

3'
Marcos Gelabert
8'
M. Gelabert↳ F. Mattia
53'
N. Solís← E. Dening
57'
S. Sosa← F. Navarro
58'
Nazareno Solis
62'
F. Grahl← M. Bogado
69'
M. Gelabert↳ F. Milo
72'
N. Pelaitay← M. Gelabert
76'
D. Valoyes← F. Bersano
82'
Matias Fissore
84'
J. Soñora← N. Tenaglia
90+3'
J. Arias↳ S. Sosa

Possession

33%San

Shots

14San

Pass accuracy

44%San

Statistics

SanTalleres
Overview
33%Possession67%
14Total Shots21
3Corners7
18Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots21
7On Target5
4Off Target12
3Blocked4
9Inside Box10
5Outside Box11
Passing
33%Possession67%
235Total Passes460
148Accurate Passes366
63%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
18Fouls16
3Yellow Cards0
4Offsides6

Match Recap: San Martin S.J. vs Talleres Cordoba

San Martin S.J. beat Talleres Cordoba 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 7, 2019.

Goals: M. Gelabert (8', 69'), J. Arias (90+3').

Talleres Cordoba controlled possession (67%) and registered 21 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan.