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San Martin S.J. vs Rosario Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
L. Ardente 88' (pen)
F. Barcelo 64'
E. Agüero 62'
F. Zampedri 45'
10/1/2017Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 5Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.36%
×Draw32%
Rosario Central33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin S.J.
0.99
Rosario Central
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

creates per match

San Martin S.J.
0.89
Rosario Central
0.93

allows per match

San Martin S.J.
0.94
Rosario Central
1.08

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par
Rosario Central-0.09on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw
67%
San Martin S.J. or Rosario Central
68%
Draw or Rosario Central
64%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
13%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
63%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
26%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
8%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
61%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
24%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
52%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.08 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.99

Rosario Central attack 0.93 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more
36%
level
32%
Rosario Central scores more
33%

San Martin S.J. at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
Maximiliano RodríguezSan Martin S.J.San Martin S.J. · M
8.3

Match Events

11'
G. Carabajal← G. Villarruel
12'
Álvaro Fernández
12'
Alfonso Parot
22'
Germán Herrera
45'
F. Zampedri↳ L. Gil
59'
Alfonso Parot
59'
Alfonso Parot
59'
F. Carrizo← G. Herrera
62'
E. Agüero↳ Maximiliano Rodríguez
64'
F. Barcelo↳ Maximiliano Rodríguez
71'
Fernando Tobio
73'
M. Gelabert← Á. Fernández
74'
A. Coscia← S. Romero
77'
C. Mosca← M. Luque
78'
J. Pereyra← G. Colman
81'
Gonzalo Prosperi
87'
Diego Rodriguez
88'
L. ArdentePenalty

Possession

61%San

Shots

11San

Pass accuracy

53%San

Statistics

SanRosario
Overview
61%Possession39%
11Total Shots12
2Corners3
15Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots12
5On Target4
6Off Target4
0Blocked4
7Inside Box5
4Outside Box7
Passing
61%Possession39%
493Total Passes305
408Accurate Passes224
83%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls15
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards2
4Offsides3

Match Recap: San Martin S.J. vs Rosario Central

San Martin S.J. beat Rosario Central 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 1, 2017.

Goals: F. Zampedri (45'), E. Agüero (62'), F. Barcelo (64'), L. Ardente (88' pen).

San Martin S.J. controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan.