Rosario Central 0–0 San Martin S.J.: Result & Stats

Rosario Central

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Martin S.J.

7/26/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rosario Central46%

×Draw31%

San Martin S.J.22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosario CentralExpected goals in this matchSan Martin S.J.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.70

Rosario Central

1.15

San Martin S.J.

0.70

Rosario Central creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.04

creates per match

0.77

0.62

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Rosario Central

1.04

San Martin S.J.

0.77

allows per match

Rosario Central

0.62

San Martin S.J.

1.25

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more

San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

San Martin S.J. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw

78%

Rosario Central or San Martin S.J.

69%

Draw or San Martin S.J.

54%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+

20%

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals

68%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

32%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

11%

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

50%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

16%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

67%

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rosario Central scores more

46%

level

31%

San Martin S.J. scores more

22%

Rosario Central at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Broun

Rosario Central · G

9.0

Match Events

6'

Tomás Fernández

36'

Rodrigo Caseres

45'

Franco Ibarra

46'

J. M. Elordi← A. Sandez

46'

J. Campaz← G. Cantizano

54'

J. Gimenez← C. Quintana

62'

E. Copetti← F. Ibarra

63'

T. Lecanda← T. Fernandez

71'

A. Molina← S. Salle

84'

E. Burgos← S. Jaurena

84'

M. Orihuela← H. Tijanovich

84'

F. Toloza← I. Maestro

90+1'

Nicolas Watson

90+1'

S. Segovia← I. Malcorra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosarioSan

Overview

73%Possession27%

13Total Shots7

1.10Expected Goals (xG)0.49

9Corners5

8Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots7

5On Target2

6Off Target4

2Blocked1

10Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

73%Possession27%

486Total Passes176

387Accurate Passes109

80%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

1.16Goals Prevented1.16

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0