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Rosario Central vs San Martin S.J. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
A. Parot 61'
11/28/2018Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 7Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rosario Central46%
×Draw31%
San Martin S.J.22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.15
San Martin S.J.
0.70

Rosario Central creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.04
San Martin S.J.
0.77

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.62
San Martin S.J.
1.25

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more
San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
78%
Rosario Central or San Martin S.J.
69%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
54%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
20%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
68%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
32%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
11%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
50%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
16%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
67%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rosario Central scores more
46%
level
31%
San Martin S.J. scores more
22%

Rosario Central at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
F. CarrizoRosario CentralRosario Central · M
7.7

Match Events

61'
A. Parot
64'
G. Villarruel← F. Cristaldo
66'
Gianni Rodríguez← F. Milo
69'
G. Castillejos← P. Palacios
74'
E. Ojeda← L. Gil
80'
D. Becker← F. Carrizo
83'
Washington Camacho
85'
D. Arismendi← W. Camacho

Possession

55%Rosario

Shots

10Rosario

Pass accuracy

51%Rosario

Statistics

RosarioSan
Overview
55%Possession45%
10Total Shots11
3Corners5
8Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots11
4On Target3
6Off Target6
0Blocked2
6Inside Box7
4Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
489Total Passes385
380Accurate Passes285
78%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls11
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
5Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Rosario Central 1–0 San Martin S.J.

Rosario Central beat San Martin S.J. 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 28, 2018.

Goals: A. Parot (61').

Rosario Central controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre in Rosario.