San Martin S.J. 1–1 Lanus: Result & Stats

San Martin S.J.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lanus

C. Spinelli 11'

G. Lodico 35'

4/21/2018

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 24Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.40%

×Draw31%

Lanus29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Martin S.J.Expected goals in this matchLanus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.89

San Martin S.J.

1.09

Lanus

0.89

San Martin S.J. creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

0.89

creates per match

0.83

0.94

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

San Martin S.J.

0.89

Lanus

0.83

allows per match

San Martin S.J.

0.94

Lanus

1.29

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par

Lanus-0.01on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Lanus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw

71%

San Martin S.J. or Lanus

69%

Draw or Lanus

60%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

16%

Lanus wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

66%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

30%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

10%

Lanus 1+ goals

59%

Lanus 2+ goals

22%

Lanus 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

58%

Lanus (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Lanus away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + Lanus defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Lanus attack 0.83 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more

40%

level

31%

Lanus scores more

29%

San Martin S.J. at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

G. Lodico

Lanus · M

7.8

Match Events

11'

35'

42'

43'

46'

50'

56'

G. Carabajal← P. Magnín

59'

Álvaro Fernández

70'

Matías Fissore← F. Barcelo

74'

81'

83'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanLanus

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots10

2Corners12

17Fouls9

Shots

6Total Shots10

3On Target4

3Off Target6

5Inside Box7

1Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

347Total Passes412

271Accurate Passes348

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides3

Match Recap: San Martin S.J. vs Lanus

San Martin S.J. and Lanus drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 21, 2018.

Goals: C. Spinelli (11'), G. Lodico (35').

Lanus controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan.

San Martin S.J. vs Lanus — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: San Martin S.J. vs Lanus